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BillJacobs (44K)

Test Your Slam Play


from Bill Jacobs

bill.jacobs55@gmail.com

Q 3
A K Q J
K Q J 4 2
A K
N
WE
S
A K
10 5
9 8
10 9 8 7 5 4 3
WestNorthEastSouth
 2 Pass3 
Pass3 Pass3 NT
Pass6 NTPassPass
Pass   
6 NT by South

SJ is led. Plan the play.


Solution

North Deals
Both Vul
Q 3
A K Q J
K Q J 4 2
A K
J 10 9 4
8 7 6
6 5 3
Q 6 2
N
WE
S
8 7 6 5 2
9 4 3 2
A 10 7
J
A K
10 5
9 8
10 9 8 7 5 4 3

Line 1: Play diamonds from the top, hoping for a 3-3 break. Chance of success: 36%.

Line 2: Play CAK, hoping for a 2-2 break. Chance of success: 41%.

Line 3: Run D9 at trick 2, hoping D10 is on-side, and the suit breaks no worse than 4-2. Chance of success: 42%.

The correct line? Ignore all those numbers, and start with line 2, cashing CAK. Then if someone shows out on the second round, play diamonds from the top. If diamonds are 3-3, and the DA is with the club shortage, then you will still make your contract. If clubs prove to be 4-0, you can revert to diamonds after the first round of clubs, avoiding the risk of a winning club being cashed. For the numerically inclined, chance of success: 52%.

The moral: Two chances are better than one.



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